Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Ohio is a dead heat

At the time of writing Florida appears to have gone to Bush, so Ohio is almost certainly the deciding state.

Right now the votes go as follows:

Bush: 2,245,388
Kerry: 2,112,297

But if you take a look at the county level votes Cuyahoga, the most densely populated county in the state is voting overwhelmingly in favor of Kerry, and only has 76% of the votes counted. Assuming the votes are being tallied at an even pace, there's roughly 100,000 votes left in the county, of which roughly 65% will go to Kerry. That's 30,000 more votes for Kerry than for Bush.

Bush will win Ohio by about 50,000 - 75,000 votes, and will get elected again.

-TPP

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